Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Travis Kelce from EV Insight

Travis KelceReceiving Yards

Right now, Travis Kelce’s receiving yards prop is set at 72.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 72.5 (-110) after it opened @ 73.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 64.8 plays per game.
Travis Kelce has run a route on 85.7% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Travis Kelce to earn 8.7 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has performed very well when opposing tight ends have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.40 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in football.
The Kansas City Chiefs have been faced with a stacked the box on just 9.3% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards