Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Sterling ShepardReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Giants vs. Cowboys
Right now, Sterling Shepard’s receiving yards prop is set at 45.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 45.5 (-110) after it opened @ 38.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 36.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 5th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Sterling Shepard to accumulate 7.6 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among wide receivers.
- Sterling Shepard has been heavily involved in his team’s offense, earning a Target Share of 23.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
- Sterling Shepard has totaled a whopping 73.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 81st percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants to be the least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 56.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New York Giants have run the least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 61.7 plays per game.
- The New York Giants O-line ranks as the worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass game metrics across the board.
- Sterling Shepard’s receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 70.0% to 62.3%.
- Sterling Shepard’s pass-catching effectiveness has worsened this year, totaling a mere 6.10 yards-per-target vs a 7.45 figure last year.
Projection
THE BLITZ
53
Receiving Yards
53
Receiving Yards
