Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Stefon DiggsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Commanders vs. Bills
Right now, Stefon Diggs’s receiving yards prop is set at 69.5 yards (-137/+106).
The public has bet the OVER up to 69.5 (-137) after it opened @ 69.5 (-113).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Stefon Diggs to earn 9.4 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among wideouts.
- Stefon Diggs has been a key part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 27.9% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
- Stefon Diggs has compiled a colossal 102.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among wideouts.
- Stefon Diggs has been among the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 91.0 yards per game while ranking in the 99th percentile.
Cons
- The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
79
Receiving Yards
79
Receiving Yards
