Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Sam LaPorta from EV Insight

Sam LaPortaReceiving Yards

Right now, Sam LaPorta’s receiving yards prop is set at 39.5 yards (-108/-121).

The public has bet the OVER up to 39.5 (-108) after it opened @ 35.5 (-114).

Pros

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Sam LaPorta to earn 5.0 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 83rd percentile among tight ends.
Sam LaPorta has earned a monstrous 11.1% of his team’s air yards this year: 81st percentile among tight ends.
Sam LaPorta has been among the best possession receivers in football among TEs, hauling in a stellar 91.7% of passes thrown his way this year, checking in at the 87th percentile.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has surrendered the 4th-most receiving yards per game in the league (59.0) to TEs since the start of last season.

Cons

The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 57.6% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 6th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards