Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Mike Gesicki from EV Insight

Mike GesickiReceiving Yards

Right now, Mike Gesicki’s receiving yards prop is set at 27.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 27.5 (-130) after it opened @ 28.5 (-110).

Pros

The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Mike Gesicki to accrue 4.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile among TEs.
Mike Gesicki has put up a colossal 52.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among TEs.

Cons

The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Mike Gesicki has been among the weakest tight ends in football at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 3.01 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 6th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards