Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Ravens vs. Colts
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 59.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 59.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Colts are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Michael Pittman has been among the best pass-catching WRs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 62.0 yards per game while grading out in the 85th percentile.
- The Baltimore Ravens defense has surrendered the 6th-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (158.0) to wide receivers since the start of last season.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 7th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
70
Receiving Yards
70
Receiving Yards
