Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Michael PittmanReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Colts vs. Chiefs
Right now, Michael Pittman’s receiving yards prop is set at 70.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 70.5 (-131) after it opened @ 62.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Colts are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 128.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 37.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 3rd-most in the NFL.
- Michael Pittman has run a route on 96.4% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects Michael Pittman to accumulate 8.6 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among wide receivers.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-least pass-centric offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 59.8% pass rate.
- The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
- The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks grade out as the 9th-best collection of CBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
- The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the quickest in football since the start of last season.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Projection
THE BLITZ
75
Receiving Yards
75
Receiving Yards
