Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Luke Musgrave from EV Insight

Luke MusgraveReceiving Yards

Right now, Luke Musgrave’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 27.5 (-114).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects Luke Musgrave to earn 5.8 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 92nd percentile among tight ends.
Luke Musgrave has been responsible for a colossal 18.9% of his team’s air yards this year: 95th percentile among TEs.
The Green Bay Packers O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
Luke Musgrave has been among the most efficient pass-catchers in the NFL among tight ends, averaging an impressive 9.39 yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 81st percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers offense as the 5th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.54 seconds per play.
The New Orleans Saints defense has surrendered the least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 27.0) vs. TEs since the start of last season.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has yielded the lowest Completion% in the league (54.4%) vs. TEs since the start of last season (54.4%).
The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 3rd-best group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

Projection

THE BLITZ
37
Receiving Yards