WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Kylen GransonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Ravens vs. Colts
Right now, Kylen Granson’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 25.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Colts are an enormous 7.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 59.8 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Kylen Granson to total 5.1 targets in this week’s game, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 7th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
- Kylen Granson’s ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 77.7% to 70.6%.
- Kylen Granson’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, notching just 5.93 yards-per-target compared to a 7.28 mark last year.
- The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has shown good efficiency versus tight ends since the start of last season, giving up 7.04 yards-per-target to the position: the 9th-least in the NFL.
- The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the best group of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
28
Receiving Yards
28
Receiving Yards
