Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Kyle PittsReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Seahawks vs. Falcons
Right now, Kyle Pitts’s receiving yards prop is set at 51.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 51.5 (-110) after it opened @ 41.5 (-115).
Pros
- The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing teams have averaged 35.9 pass attempts per game against the Seattle Seahawks defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Kyle Pitts to accumulate 6.1 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 92nd percentile among TEs.
- Kyle Pitts has put up a whopping 69.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among TEs.
- Kyle Pitts’s 49.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the league leaders: 96th percentile for TEs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Atlanta Falcons as the 4th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 53.1% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 118.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Atlanta Falcons have run the 2nd-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a measly 59.0 plays per game.
- The Atlanta Falcons offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
- Kyle Pitts’s possession skills have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 62.0% to 37.5%.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
