Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
JuJu Smith-SchusterReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Colts vs. Chiefs
Right now, JuJu Smith-Schuster’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (+100/-130).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 50.5 (-130) after it opened @ 51.5 (-120).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 64.8 plays per game.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster has run a route on 72.4% of his offense’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 75th percentile among WRs.
- THE BLITZ projects JuJu Smith-Schuster to accrue 6.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 79th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts defense has conceded the 6th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 132.0) to wideouts since the start of last season.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown strong efficiency against wideouts since the start of last season, allowing 7.41 yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-least in the league.
- The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has excelled when opposing WRs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 3.89 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 2nd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
