WNBA Best Bets (Wednesday 9/25)
Josh Gross
Ja’Marr ChaseReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bengals vs. Rams
Right now, Ja’Marr Chase’s receiving yards prop is set at 80.5 yards (-115/-115).
The public has bet the OVER up to 80.5 (-115) after it opened @ 71.5 (-115).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Ja’Marr Chase has run a route on 99.5% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 100th percentile among wide receivers.
- The predictive model expects Ja’Marr Chase to earn 10.1 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 97th percentile among wide receivers.
- Ja’Marr Chase has posted a colossal 92.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among wide receivers.
- The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the highest Completion% in the NFL (70.1%) versus WRs since the start of last season (70.1%).
Cons
- The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week’s game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- The model projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Ja’Marr Chase’s possession skills have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 70.1% to 60.0%.
- Ja’Marr Chase’s pass-catching effectiveness has diminished this season, notching just 4.78 yards-per-target vs a 8.79 rate last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
84
Receiving Yards
84
Receiving Yards
