Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Irv Smith from EV Insight

Irv SmithReceiving Yards

Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).

Pros

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.8% pass rate.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to earn 4.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
Irv Smith has accounted for a monstrous 15.7% of his team’s air yards this year: 90th percentile among tight ends.

Cons

The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per play.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Irv Smith has been among the worst possession receivers in the league among TEs, hauling in a mere 47.2% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 24th percentile.

Projection

THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards