Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Irv SmithReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Vikings vs. Lions
Right now, Irv Smith’s receiving yards prop is set at 28.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 28.5 (-110) after it opened @ 29.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Kevin O’Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 64.8% pass rate.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Irv Smith to earn 4.5 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among TEs.
- Irv Smith has accounted for a monstrous 15.7% of his team’s air yards this year: 90th percentile among tight ends.
Cons
- The Vikings are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings as the 9th-most sluggish paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 27.66 seconds per play.
- Opposing teams have averaged 32.8 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense since the start of last season: 9th-least in the league.
- The Minnesota Vikings offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Irv Smith has been among the worst possession receivers in the league among TEs, hauling in a mere 47.2% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 24th percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
35
Receiving Yards
35
Receiving Yards
