Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Hayden HurstReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Bengals
Right now, Hayden Hurst’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to notch 4.4 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
- THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to be a more integral piece of his team’s passing offense this week (14.2% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.1% in games he has played).
- Hayden Hurst has accounted for a monstrous 12.5% of his offense’s air yards this year: 84th percentile among tight ends.
- Hayden Hurst has been among the most reliable receivers in football among tight ends, hauling in a stellar 80.4% of balls thrown his way this year, grading out in the 80th percentile.
Cons
- The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 7th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 55.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Hayden Hurst’s receiving efficiency has worsened this year, accumulating a mere 5.58 yards-per-target compared to a 7.17 mark last year.
- Hayden Hurst has been among the weakest TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging just 3.70 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 21st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
