Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
George PickensReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Raiders vs. Steelers
Right now, George Pickens’s receiving yards prop is set at 53.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week’s game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 63.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 6th-most plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 60.5 plays per game.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 35.0 pass attempts per game versus the Las Vegas Raiders defense since the start of last season: 9th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 9th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- George Pickens’s ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Completion% falling off from 62.5% to 55.7%.
- George Pickens’s pass-game efficiency has worsened this year, compiling a measly 8.03 yards-per-target vs a 9.73 figure last year.
- George Pickens has been among the weakest wide receivers in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a mere 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 1st percentile.
- The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers project as the best unit in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
76
Receiving Yards
76
Receiving Yards
