Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to total 6.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.5% pass rate.
The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
Garrett Wilson has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, completing just 59.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 24th percentile among wideouts
Garrett Wilson has been among the worst WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.65 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards