NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Jets vs. Bengals
Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).
Pros
- The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
- The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
- THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to total 6.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.5% pass rate.
- The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
- Garrett Wilson has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, completing just 59.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 24th percentile among wideouts
- Garrett Wilson has been among the worst WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
- The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.65 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards
45
Receiving Yards
