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Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Garrett Wilson from EV Insight

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Garrett Wilson

Garrett WilsonReceiving Yards

Player Props – Week 3

Jets vs. Bengals

Right now, Garrett Wilson’s receiving yards prop is set at 50.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 50.5 (-110) after it opened @ 44.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The New York Jets will be rolling out backup QB Joe Flacco in this week’s contest, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • The Jets are a 6.5-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Cincinnati Bengals defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the league.
  • THE BLITZ projects Garrett Wilson to total 6.5 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets as the 10th-least pass-heavy offense in football (in a neutral context) right now with a 60.5% pass rate.
  • The New York Jets O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.
  • Garrett Wilson has been among the most hard-handed receivers in the league, completing just 59.3% of passes thrown his way this year, ranking in the 24th percentile among wideouts
  • Garrett Wilson has been among the worst WRs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while ranking in the 1st percentile.
  • The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has performed very well when opposing WRs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 3.65 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.

Projection
THE BLITZ
45
Receiving Yards

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