Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for DK Metcalf from EV Insight

DK MetcalfReceiving Yards

Right now, DK Metcalf’s receiving yards prop is set at 61.5 yards (-125/-105).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 61.5 (-105) after it opened @ 62.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects D.K. Metcalf to total 8.2 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 88th percentile among WRs.
D.K. Metcalf has accrued a colossal 100.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 96th percentile among WRs.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has surrendered the highest Completion% in the NFL (72.6%) to WRs since the start of last season (72.6%).

Cons

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.01 seconds per snap.
D.K. Metcalf has been among the weakest wide receivers in the league at grinding out extra yardage, averaging a mere 2.72 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 19th percentile.
The Carolina Panthers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing WRs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.49 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 3rd-least in football.
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
67
Receiving Yards