Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dawson KnoxReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Dawson Knox’s receiving yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 34.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.6% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 2nd-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 64.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have called the 6th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 65.4 plays per game.
- The Buffalo Bills have played in the most “bad weather” (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in the league since the start of last season, which should lead to increased pass volume, lower running volume, and improved passing offense performance when facing better conditions in this week’s game.
- Dawson Knox has run a route on 81.4% of his team’s dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking in the 94th percentile among TEs.
Cons
- The Bills are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Bills to call the 3rd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 59.1 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Dawson Knox’s receiving efficiency has tailed off this year, totaling a mere 7.31 yards-per-target vs a 8.90 mark last year.
- The Miami Dolphins pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.39 yards-after-the-catch this year: the least in football.
- The Miami Dolphins safeties grade out as the 5th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
Projection
THE BLITZ
34
Receiving Yards
34
Receiving Yards
