Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darren Waller from EV Insight

Darren WallerReceiving Yards

Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-133/-103).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-133) after it opened @ 45.5 (-119).

Pros

The Giants are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to earn 6.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be much more involved in his offense’s passing offense this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.5% in games he has played).
Darren Waller has been among the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 53.0 yards per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 59.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown good efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, yielding 5.62 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.67 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards