NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Darren WallerReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
49ers vs. Giants
Right now, Darren Waller’s receiving yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-133/-103).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-133) after it opened @ 45.5 (-119).
Pros
- The Giants are an enormous 10.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-most in the NFL.
- THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to earn 6.3 targets in this week’s game, on average, putting him in the 96th percentile among TEs.
- THE BLITZ projects Darren Waller to be much more involved in his offense’s passing offense this week (21.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (15.5% in games he has played).
- Darren Waller has been among the best TE receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 53.0 yards per game while grading out in the 98th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Giants to run the least total plays on the slate this week with 59.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The weather report calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
- The New York Giants O-line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack statistics across the board.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has shown good efficiency against TEs since the start of last season, yielding 5.62 yards-per-target to the position: the 3rd-least in the NFL.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has performed very well when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 3.67 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
44
Receiving Yards
44
Receiving Yards
