Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Darnell Mooney from EV Insight

Darnell MooneyReceiving Yards

Right now, Darnell Mooney’s receiving yards prop is set at 44.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 44.5 (-130) after it opened @ 45.5 (-115).

Pros

Darnell Mooney has run a route on 93.1% of his team’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
Darnell Mooney has accumulated a monstrous 83.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile among wideouts.
Darnell Mooney has been among the leading WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 54.0 yards per game while grading out in the 81st percentile.
The Houston Texans defense has allowed the 5th-most receiving yards per game in the league (165.0) versus WRs since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans pass defense has displayed weak efficiency against wide receivers since the start of last season, allowing 9.33 yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-most in the NFL.

Cons

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 7th-worst paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
39
Receiving Yards