Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dalton Kincaid from EV Insight

Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards

Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-127/-108).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-108) after it opened @ 32.5 (-119).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dalton Kincaid to accrue 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
Dalton Kincaid has accounted for a whopping 9.9% of his offense’s air yards this year: 75th percentile among tight ends.
Dalton Kincaid has been among the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, completing an impressive 90.3% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.
The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 4th-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

Cons

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards