Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dalton KincaidReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Commanders vs. Bills
Right now, Dalton Kincaid’s receiving yards prop is set at 29.5 yards (-127/-108).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 29.5 (-108) after it opened @ 32.5 (-119).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Dalton Kincaid to accrue 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among tight ends.
- Dalton Kincaid has accounted for a whopping 9.9% of his offense’s air yards this year: 75th percentile among tight ends.
- Dalton Kincaid has been among the best possession receivers in the league among tight ends, completing an impressive 90.3% of balls thrown his way this year, checking in at the 85th percentile.
- The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 4th-worst LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
Cons
- The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
27
Receiving Yards
27
Receiving Yards
