Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Eagles
Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 38.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- The leading projections forecast the Eagles to run the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Philadelphia Eagles have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 60.1 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
- Dallas Goedert has run a route on 87.9% of his offense’s passing plays since the start of last season, ranking him in the 97th percentile among TEs.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the 5th-highest Completion% in the league (74.6%) to TEs since the start of last season (74.6%).
Cons
- The Philadelphia Eagles boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Johnson, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
- The Eagles are a 5.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
- The leading projections forecast the Philadelphia Eagles to be the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Dallas Goedert’s sure-handedness have diminished this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 80.2% to 74.7%.
- Dallas Goedert’s pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling just 2.58 yards-per-target vs a 10.42 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
41
Receiving Yards
41
Receiving Yards
