Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for Dallas Goedert from EV Insight

Dallas GoedertReceiving Yards

Right now, Dallas Goedert’s receiving yards prop is set at 47.5 yards (-101/-135).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 47.5 (-135) after it opened @ 50.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dallas Goedert to earn 4.7 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking in the 87th percentile among tight ends.
Dallas Goedert has been an integral part of his team’s offense, garnering a Target Share of 19.3% since the start of last season, which ranks him in the 94th percentile among TEs.
Dallas Goedert has put up a whopping 42.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among TEs.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
The Washington Commanders pass defense has excelled when opposing TEs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.41 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-least in the league.

Projection

THE BLITZ
40
Receiving Yards