Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Cooper KuppReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Cardinals vs. Rams
Right now, Cooper Kupp’s receiving yards prop is set at 98.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 98.5 (-110) after it opened @ 99.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
- THE BLITZ projects Cooper Kupp to accrue 12.3 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 100th percentile among WRs.
- Cooper Kupp has been a big part of his team’s passing offense, earning a Target Share of 33.5% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 100th percentile among wideouts.
- Cooper Kupp has totaled a monstrous 98.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 95th percentile among WRs.
Cons
- The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.46 seconds per snap.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
- Cooper Kupp’s pass-game efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling just 8.97 yards-per-target compared to a 10.36 rate last season.
- The Arizona Cardinals defense has yielded the 10th-least receiving yards per game in the NFL (just 139.0) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
114
Receiving Yards
114
Receiving Yards
