Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Chris OlaveReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Packers vs. Saints
Right now, Chris Olave’s receiving yards prop is set at 66.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 66.5 (+100) after it opened @ 67.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.98 seconds per snap.
- THE BLITZ projects Chris Olave to earn 8.9 targets in this week’s contest, on average, ranking him in the 93rd percentile among wideouts.
- Chris Olave has posted a monstrous 116.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 99th percentile among wideouts.
- Chris Olave’s 69.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 97th percentile for wide receivers.
- Chris Olave has been among the best WRs in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 66.0 yards per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Chris Olave has been among the worst wide receivers in football at picking up extra yardage, averaging a measly 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year while checking in at the 1st percentile.
Projection
THE BLITZ
71
Receiving Yards
71
Receiving Yards
