Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Brandin CooksReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Bears vs. Texans
Right now, Brandin Cooks’s receiving yards prop is set at 58.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 58.5 (-110) after it opened @ 60.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects Brandin Cooks to accumulate 8.5 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 94th percentile among WRs.
- Brandin Cooks has been a key part of his team’s pass game, earning a Target Share of 28.5% since the start of last season, which places him in the 97th percentile among WRs.
- Brandin Cooks has notched a monstrous 95.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 93rd percentile among WRs.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 10th-least total plays on the slate this week with 59.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 59.7 plays per game.
- The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.
- The Houston Texans O-line profiles as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
60
Receiving Yards
60
Receiving Yards
