Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Amon-Ra St. BrownReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Lions vs. Falcons
Right now, Amon-Ra St. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 68.5 yards (-110/-110).
Pros
- This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
- THE BLITZ projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to notch 9.3 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a big part of his team’s passing attack, posting a Target Share of 29.3% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 98th percentile among wide receivers.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown has been among the leading pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 78.0 yards per game while ranking in the 95th percentile.
- The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has struggled when opposing wideouts have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.61 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-most in the NFL.
Cons
- The Lions are a 3-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions to be the 5th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 57.6% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects the Detroit Lions offense as the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
- The Detroit Lions O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
- The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 6th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
Projection
THE BLITZ
88
Receiving Yards
88
Receiving Yards
