Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Albert OkwuegbunamReceiving Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Broncos vs. 49ers
Right now, Albert Okwuegbunam’s receiving yards prop is set at 25.5 yards (-130/+100).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 25.5 (+100) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Denver Broncos will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- Albert Okwuegbunam has been among the top TEs in the NFL at picking up extra yardage, averaging a terrific 6.84 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) since the start of last season while checking in at the 85th percentile.
- The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has been vulnerable when opposing TEs have gotten into space, conceding an average of 5.68 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 9th-most in football.
- The Denver Broncos O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.68 seconds before the pass (6th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.
- The Denver Broncos have been faced with a stacked the box on 17.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-most in football. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Broncos to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 57.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- The Denver Broncos have run the 6th-least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 61.0 plays per game.
- Opposing teams have averaged 30.5 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
- Albert Okwuegbunam’s receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Completion% falling off from 81.7% to 72.1%.
- Albert Okwuegbunam’s pass-game efficiency has diminished this season, compiling just 4.83 yards-per-target vs a 7.24 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
22
Receiving Yards
22
Receiving Yards
