Week 3 Player Props: Receiving Yards for A.J. Brown from EV Insight

A.J. BrownReceiving Yards

Right now, A.J. Brown’s receiving yards prop is set at 75.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 75.5 (-115) after it opened @ 72.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Eagles to run the 4th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects A.J. Brown to earn 7.3 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 86th percentile among wide receivers.
A.J. Brown has accumulated a whopping 97.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 94th percentile among wide receivers.
A.J. Brown’s 72.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 98th percentile for wideouts.
The Philadelphia Eagles O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Eagles are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Philadelphia Eagles as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 47.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
64
Receiving Yards