Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Dolphins vs. Broncos
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 268.5 yards (-131/-104).
The public has bet the OVER up to 268.5 (-131) after it opened @ 264.5 (-117).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins as the 5th-most pass-centric team in football (context-neutralized) right now with a 64.1% pass rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Tua Tagovailoa to attempt 35.7 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-most of all quarterbacks.
- Tua Tagovailoa has been among the top QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 269.0 yards per game while ranking in the 84th percentile.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing accuracy has been refined this year, with his Completion% rising from 64.0% to 67.3%.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s passing effectiveness has been refined this season, accumulating 9.87 yards-per-target compared to just 8.22 mark last season.
Cons
- The Dolphins are a 6-point favorite in this week’s contest, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have called the 3rd-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.2 plays per game.
- The Denver Broncos pass defense has displayed strong efficiency since the start of last season, surrendering 7.02 yards-per-target: the 3rd-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
252
Passing Yards
252
Passing Yards
