Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tua TagovailoaPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Dolphins vs. Bills
Right now, Tua Tagovailoa’s passing yards prop is set at 272.5 yards (-117/-117).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 272.5 (-117) after it opened @ 264.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Dolphins are a 4.5-point underdog in this week’s contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Miami Dolphins have run the 9th-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 63.9 plays per game.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s passing precision has gotten better this year, with his Completion% rising from 67.4% to 72.1%.
- Tua Tagovailoa’s throwing efficiency has gotten better this year, accumulating 8.02 yards-per-target compared to a measly 6.84 mark last year.
Cons
- The Miami Dolphins boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Mike McDaniel, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 1.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 119.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
- The Miami Dolphins O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
- Opposing offenses have thrown for the least yards in football (just 179.0 per game) versus the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
237
Passing Yards
237
Passing Yards
