Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tom BradyPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Packers
Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 257.5 yards (+165/-234).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 257.5 (+165) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.6 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 35.8 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
- Tom Brady has been among the leading quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 278.0 yards per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Tom Brady’s passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.3% to 61.7%.
- Tom Brady’s throwing efficiency has tailed off this year, accumulating just 6.48 yards-per-target vs a 7.57 figure last year.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 8th-least yards in football (just 217.0 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the league vs. the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season (67.7%).
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
