Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Tom Brady from EV Insight

Tom BradyPassing Yards

Right now, Tom Brady’s passing yards prop is set at 257.5 yards (+165/-234).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 257.5 (+165) after it opened @ 256.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 65.6 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Tom Brady to attempt 35.8 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-most of all quarterbacks.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Tom Brady has been among the leading quarterbacks in football since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 278.0 yards per game while checking in at the 97th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Buccaneers to call the least total plays among all teams this week with 59.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Tom Brady’s passing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 67.3% to 61.7%.
Tom Brady’s throwing efficiency has tailed off this year, accumulating just 6.48 yards-per-target vs a 7.57 figure last year.
Opposing teams have thrown for the 8th-least yards in football (just 217.0 per game) against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest level in the league vs. the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season (67.7%).

Projection

THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards