NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/14)
Alex Christenson
Sam HowellPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Commanders vs. Bills
Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 222.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-114).
Pros
- The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
- The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 203.0 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
- The Buffalo Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.49 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in football.
Projection
THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards
240
Passing Yards
