Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Sam Howell

Sam HowellPassing Yards

Right now, Sam Howell’s passing yards prop is set at 222.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 222.5 (-110) after it opened @ 229.5 (-114).

Pros

The Washington Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 9.8% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Commanders are a 5.5-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders as the 4th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Washington Commanders have called the 3rd-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 62.2 plays per game.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Commanders to call the 4th-least total plays among all teams this week with 61.5 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.
The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Opposing quarterbacks have passed for the 3rd-least yards in the NFL (just 203.0 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, surrendering an average of 4.49 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in football.

Projection

THE BLITZ
240
Passing Yards