Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Patrick Mahomes from EV Insight

Patrick MahomesPassing Yards

Right now, Patrick Mahomes’s passing yards prop is set at 288.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 288.5 (-110) after it opened @ 292.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Kansas City Chiefs to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 63.3% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 128.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Kansas City Chiefs have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 64.8 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Patrick Mahomes to attempt 38.3 passes in this week’s game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
The Kansas City Chiefs offensive line ranks as the 2nd-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.

Cons

The Chiefs are a 4.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 7th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season (68.2%).
The Indianapolis Colts pass defense has shown strong efficiency since the start of last season, giving up 7.31 yards-per-target: the 9th-least in the NFL.
The Indianapolis Colts defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.04 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 8th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
253
Passing Yards