Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Matthew Stafford from EV Insight

Matthew StaffordPassing Yards

Right now, Matthew Stafford’s passing yards prop is set at 274.5 yards (-127/-108).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 274.5 (-108) after it opened @ 279.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 64.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Matthew Stafford to attempt 36.6 passes in this contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
The Los Angeles Rams O-line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Matthew Stafford’s passing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 65.4% to 72.1%.

Cons

The Rams are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Rams as the 3rd-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.46 seconds per snap.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the league.
Opposing teams have passed for the 10th-least yards in football (just 219.0 per game) against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 4.88 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 4th-least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
284
Passing Yards