Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Justin Herbert from EV Insight

Justin HerbertPassing Yards

Right now, Justin Herbert’s passing yards prop is set at 284.5 yards (+100/-130).

The public has bet the OVER up to 284.5 (+100) after it opened @ 281.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the 5th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 62.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling a monstrous 63.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
Justin Herbert has been among the leading quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 281.0 yards per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

Cons

The Los Angeles Chargers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.8% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Minnesota Vikings safeties project as the 7th-best safety corps in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
316
Passing Yards