Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Josh Allen from EV Insight

Josh AllenPassing Yards

Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 253.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 253.5 (-110) after it opened @ 262.5 (-110).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Josh Allen has attempted 37.3 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
Josh Allen has been among the top quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 272.0 yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.
Josh Allen’s throwing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 64.2% to 77.2%.
Josh Allen has been among the most effective passers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 7.21 yards-per-target while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Cons

The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards