NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
Josh AllenPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Commanders vs. Bills
Right now, Josh Allen’s passing yards prop is set at 253.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 253.5 (-110) after it opened @ 262.5 (-110).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills to be the 8th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Josh Allen has attempted 37.3 throws per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 78th percentile among quarterbacks.
- Josh Allen has been among the top quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 272.0 yards per game while grading out in the 86th percentile.
- Josh Allen’s throwing precision has improved this year, with his Completion% jumping from 64.2% to 77.2%.
- Josh Allen has been among the most effective passers in the league this year, averaging a terrific 7.21 yards-per-target while checking in at the 78th percentile.
Cons
- The Bills are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run on the slate this week at 123.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Buffalo Bills have run the 10th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 55.8 plays per game.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game versus the Washington Commanders defense since the start of last season: 3rd-least in the league.
- The Buffalo Bills O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing game statistics across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
246
Passing Yards
246
Passing Yards
