Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Jimmy GaroppoloPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Broncos vs. 49ers
Right now, Jimmy Garoppolo’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 233.5 (-110) after it opened @ 235.5 (-115).
Pros
- The San Francisco 49ers O-line profiles as the 4th-best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most accurate QBs in the NFL since the start of last season with a stellar 68.2% Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.
- Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the best per-play QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 8.43 yards-per-target while ranking in the 100th percentile.
- The Denver Broncos defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, giving up an average of 6.06 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in the league.
- The Denver Broncos pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 6th-most sluggish in the NFL since the start of last season.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 61.5 plays per game.
- THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 28.9 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
- Opposing QBs have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game versus the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.
Projection
THE BLITZ
223
Passing Yards
223
Passing Yards
