Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 251.5 yards (-115/-115).

The public has bet the UNDER down to 251.5 (-115) after it opened @ 253.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 8th-most pass-centric team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 63.3% pass rate.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Geno Smith has been among the top passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 252.0 yards per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.
Geno Smith’s passing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 69.4% to 72.6%.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 2nd-highest rate in the league vs. the Carolina Panthers defense since the start of last season (74.5%).

Cons

The Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 29.01 seconds per snap.
The Carolina Panthers defense has excelled when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.03 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the least in the league.
The Carolina Panthers safeties rank as the 7th-worst collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Projection

THE BLITZ
243
Passing Yards