Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Geno Smith from EV Insight

Geno SmithPassing Yards

Right now, Geno Smith’s passing yards prop is set at 215.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet up the OVER up to 215.5 (-110) after it opened @ 211.5 (-115).

Pros

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Geno Smith’s passing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Completion% increasing from 68.8% to 80.5%.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 4th-highest level in the league vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense since the start of last season (73.3%).
The Atlanta Falcons safeties profile as the 5th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Seattle Seahawks have gone no-huddle on 15.5% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-most in football). This speeds up the pace, resulting in more volume and stat production.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Seahawks to run the 3rd-least total plays among all teams this week with 59.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks have called the least plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a mere 54.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Geno Smith to attempt 31.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 6th-least of all QBs.
The Seattle Seahawks offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

Projection

THE BLITZ
248
Passing Yards