Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Derek CarrPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Packers vs. Saints
Right now, Derek Carr’s passing yards prop is set at 224.5 yards (-143/+112).
The public has bet the UNDER down to 224.5 (+112) after it opened @ 242.5 (-114).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 26.98 seconds per snap.
- The Green Bay Packers pass defense has shown bad efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 8.31 yards-per-target: the 4th-most in football.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the New Orleans Saints to be the 11th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 55.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints have played in the 7th-most “low wind” (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
- Opposing offenses have averaged 29.1 pass attempts per game against the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season: 2nd-least in football.
- The New Orleans Saints offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
- Opposing teams have thrown for the 8th-least yards in the NFL (just 206.0 per game) versus the Green Bay Packers defense since the start of last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
231
Passing Yards
231
Passing Yards
