Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Davis Mills from EV Insight

Davis MillsPassing Yards

Right now, Davis Mills’s passing yards prop is set at 206.5 yards (-115/-110).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 206.5 (-110) after it opened @ 215.5 (-115).

Pros

The Houston Texans boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 3.7% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
The Texans are a 3-point underdog in this week’s contest, which points towards a passing game script.
The Chicago Bears cornerbacks rank as the 6th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.51 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 10th-most sluggish in the league since the start of last season.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects the Texans to call the 10th-least total plays on the slate this week with 59.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Houston Texans have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging just 59.7 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Davis Mills to attempt 31.6 passes this week, on average: the 9th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 27.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Chicago Bears defense since the start of last season: least in the NFL.

Projection

THE BLITZ
195
Passing Yards