Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Dak Prescott from EV Insight

Dak PrescottPassing Yards

Right now, Dak Prescott’s passing yards prop is set at 233.5 yards (-135/+105).

The public has bet the OVER up to 233.5 (-135) after it opened @ 232.5 (-115).

Pros

The Dallas Cowboys boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.7% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-quickest paced defense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.43 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.8 pass attempts per game against the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 10th-most in the NFL.
Dak Prescott’s throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% rising from 65.4% to 73.1%.

Cons

The Cowboys are an enormous 11.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys to be the 7th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 54.3% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Dak Prescott to attempt 33.0 passes in this week’s game, on average: the 10th-least of all quarterbacks.

Projection

THE BLITZ
227
Passing Yards