Bettings
article-picture
article-picture
NFL
Bets

Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Baker Mayfield from EV Insight

Share
Contents
Close
Baker Mayfield

Baker MayfieldPassing Yards

Player Props – Week 3

Panthers vs. Saints

Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 205.5 (-125) after it opened @ 209.5 (-115).

Pros

  • The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
  • The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons

  • THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 30.3 passes this week, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
  • The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • Baker Mayfield’s passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.9% to 51.1%.
  • Baker Mayfield’s passing effectiveness has diminished this season, compiling a mere 5.69 yards-per-target compared to a 7.12 figure last season.

Projection
THE BLITZ
196
Passing Yards

Previous Week 3 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Derrick Henry from EV Insight Next Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Jalen Hurts from EV Insight