Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Baker MayfieldPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Panthers vs. Saints
Right now, Baker Mayfield’s passing yards prop is set at 205.5 yards (-105/-125).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 205.5 (-125) after it opened @ 209.5 (-115).
Pros
- The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Ben McAdoo, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.8% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 127.7 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The New Orleans Saints pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.55 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.
- The Carolina Panthers have gone up against a stacked the box on 19.7% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 55.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Baker Mayfield to attempt 30.3 passes this week, on average: the 5th-least of all quarterbacks.
- The Carolina Panthers O-line ranks as the worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful effect on all pass game stats across the board.
- Baker Mayfield’s passing precision has tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 61.9% to 51.1%.
- Baker Mayfield’s passing effectiveness has diminished this season, compiling a mere 5.69 yards-per-target compared to a 7.12 figure last season.
Projection
THE BLITZ
196
Passing Yards
196
Passing Yards
