Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Aaron RodgersPassing Yards
Player Props – Week 3
Buccaneers vs. Packers
Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-108/-127).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 230.5 (-127) after it opened @ 246.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
- Aaron Rodgers has been among the top QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 251.0 yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
- Aaron Rodgers has been among the best precision passers in the NFL this year with an impressive 71.2% Completion%, grading out in the 85th percentile.
- Aaron Rodgers has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.58 yards-per-target while ranking in the 79th percentile.
Cons
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in football against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season (68.8%).
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 6.71 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
- The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
- The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.
Projection
THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards
245
Passing Yards
