Week 3 Player Props: Passing Yards for Aaron Rodgers from EV Insight

Aaron RodgersPassing Yards

Right now, Aaron Rodgers’s passing yards prop is set at 230.5 yards (-108/-127).

The public has bet up the UNDER down to 230.5 (-127) after it opened @ 246.5 (-115).

Pros

THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season: most in the league.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the top QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 251.0 yards per game while ranking in the 82nd percentile.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the best precision passers in the NFL this year with an impressive 71.2% Completion%, grading out in the 85th percentile.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the best per-play quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an impressive 7.58 yards-per-target while ranking in the 79th percentile.

Cons

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 119.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-lowest rate in football against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense since the start of last season (68.8%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has displayed strong efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 6.71 yards-per-target: the 2nd-least in the NFL.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties grade out as the 4th-best collection of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.
The Green Bay Packers O-line has afforded their QB just 2.44 seconds before the pass (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Projection

THE BLITZ
245
Passing Yards