Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Zack MossRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Texans vs. Colts
Right now, Zack Moss’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-110).
Pros
- The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
- THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 4th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
- Zack Moss’s rushing effectiveness (4.77 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (76th percentile among running backs).
- Opposing offenses have rushed for the most yards in football (170 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
Cons
- This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Projection
THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards
49
Rushing Yards
