Week 2 Player Props: Rushing Yards for Zack Moss from EV Insight

Zack MossRushing Yards

Right now, Zack Moss’s rushing yards prop is set at 48.5 yards (-110/-110).

The public has bet the OVER up to 48.5 (-110) after it opened @ 47.5 (-110).

Pros

The Indianapolis Colts will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 4th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 46.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Colts to call the 2nd-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 67.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Zack Moss’s rushing effectiveness (4.77 yards per carry) has been some of the best in the league since the start of last season (76th percentile among running backs).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the most yards in football (170 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.

Cons

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Projection

THE BLITZ
49
Rushing Yards