Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Travis EtienneRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Jaguars vs. Colts
Right now, Travis Etienne’s rushing yards prop is set at 34.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 34.5 (-110) after it opened @ 26.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 130.0 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have gone up against a stacked the box on a measly 11.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
- The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have risked going for it on 4th down 23.0% of the time since the start of last season (8th-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.
Cons
- The Jacksonville Jaguars will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Doug Pederson, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.6% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
- The Jaguars are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Jacksonville Jaguars to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 38.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Jacksonville Jaguars have run the 4th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a mere 59.9 plays per game.
- The Indianapolis Colts linebackers grade out as the best LB corps in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
Projection
THE BLITZ
31
Rushing Yards
31
Rushing Yards
