Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Tony PollardRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Cowboys vs. Jets
Right now, Tony Pollard’s rushing yards prop is set at 71.5 yards (-120/-110).
The public has bet the OVER up to 71.5 (-120) after it opened @ 67.5 (-120).
Pros
- The Cowboys are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week’s contest, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 7th-most run-oriented offense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 41.0% run rate.
- THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to garner 16.6 rush attempts in this game, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among RBs.
- THE BLITZ projects Tony Pollard to be a much bigger part of his team’s run game this week (58.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (42.3% in games he has played).
- Tony Pollard has averaged 59.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (84th percentile).
Cons
- The Dallas Cowboys will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.4% more towards passing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 124.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
- The New York Jets defense has produced the 6th-best efficiency against opposing running games since the start of last season, allowing just 4.28 yards-per-carry.
Projection
THE BLITZ
82
Rushing Yards
82
Rushing Yards
