Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
Saquon BarkleyRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Giants vs. Panthers
Right now, Saquon Barkley’s rushing yards prop is set at 76.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the OVER up to 76.5 (-110) after it opened @ 74.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the New York Giants as the 10th-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 43.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
- THE BLITZ projects Saquon Barkley to garner 18.9 rush attempts in this game, on average, putting him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
- Saquon Barkley has received 57.9% of his offense’s rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking him in the 89th percentile among running backs.
- Saquon Barkley has generated 50.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the largest marks in the league among running backs (82nd percentile).
Cons
- The New York Giants have called the 8th-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a measly 60.8 plays per game.
- The New York Giants offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in run blocking.
- The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
- The New York Giants have incorporated motion in their offense on 26.6% of their plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which usually makes an offense more predictable and less effective.
Projection
THE BLITZ
81
Rushing Yards
81
Rushing Yards
