Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Rex BurkheadRushing Yards
Player Props – Week 2
Broncos vs. Texans
Right now, Rex Burkhead’s rushing yards prop is set at 32.5 yards (-110/-110).
The public has bet up the UNDER down to 32.5 (-110) after it opened @ 36.5 (-115).
Pros
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans offense to be the 5th-quickest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 25.58 seconds per snap.
- The Denver Broncos defensive ends profile as the 7th-worst unit in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
- The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in football. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
Cons
- The Houston Texans will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Pep Hamilton, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.6% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
- The Texans are a giant 10-point underdog in this week’s game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
- THE BLITZ projects the Houston Texans as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 36.9% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
- The Houston Texans offensive line profiles as the worst in the league since the start of last season in run blocking.
- Rex Burkhead’s ground effectiveness (3.48 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league since the start of last season (9th percentile among running backs).
Projection
THE BLITZ
40
Rushing Yards
40
Rushing Yards
